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DISSECTING THE REDS' RIGHT FIELDER....

7.21.10
BY:MEH
BRUUUUCE!?!?
DISSECTING THE REDS' RIGHT FIELDER....
jay bruce listens

Jay Bruce has played in every one of the Reds 95 games this season. With 67 regular season games left, Bruce is on pace to easily surpass his previous games played totals from his first two seasons in the majors. In fact, Bruce has played just six fewer games (101) than he did last season and thirteen fewer (108) than he did during his 2008 rookie campaign.

So far in 2010, many of Bruce's numbers already exceed those of his previous seasons. In 339 at-bats this season, Bruce has a career-high (and counting) in doubles (21), triples (4), stolen bases (5), and has just one less walk (37) than he did in all of 2009 and four more than in 2008. He is currently sitting on a .329 OBP and a .257 batting average. Both higher than at season's end in '08 (.314OBP .254AVG) and '09 (.303OBP .223AVG). Bruce has already passed his 2009 hit total (77) by ten, in six fewer at-bats. In some aspects, Bruce is improving. Be that as it may, there are many statistical categories in which Bruce is not.

During Bruce's rookie season in 2008 he notched 413 at-bats. With 105 hits Bruce drove in 52 runs, scored a career-high 63 runs, and hit 21 homers. In 2009, Bruce had 77 hits in 345 at-bats and posted career-highs in homers (22) and runs batted in (58). Jay Bruce is the only Red besides Frank Robinson to hit 20 or more home runs during each of his first two seasons. Plate discipline was still developing in '08 as Bruce struck out 27% of the time, but he dramatically decreased his strikeout rate to 21% in '09. Bruce also increased his slugging percentage from .453 in '08 to .470 in '09. Not too shabby.



Although Bruce has advanced in certain departments this season, the 23 year-old has failed miserably in others. In his 339 at-bats this season, Bruce has just 37 runs batted in and 10 home runs. Extremely weak even for a high-caliber defensive outfielder. His 89 strikeouts (26%) are consistent to his rookie year struggles and his slugging percentage (.431) has dropped 9% from last season. Bruce is hitting just .205 with runners in scoring position this year and despite a hot June (.307AVG, 12RBI), has failed to go deep and has drove in just one run in the month of July while posting an awful .130 average. He drove in his only run of July during the fifth inning of Tuesday night's 8-7 win over the Washington Nationals.

Here's where it gets interesting. Twenty-eight of Bruce's 37 RBI this season have came during Cincinnati victories. So did 80% of his doubles, 75% of his triples, 60% of his homers, and 62% of his walks. His batting average is .146 when the Reds lose and .348 when they win.

Producing seven of his ten homers during the situation, Bruce appears to like the first two pitches of each at-bat averaging .386 when attempting at the first and .339 when hacking at the second. Bruce's most productive count is 0-1 where he's drove in 18 runs, hit ten doubles, and belted half of his homers.

Jay Bruce's bat could provide an already potent offense with a surge into the post season. Like Edinson Volquez, Bruce could bring blockbuster-trade value to the Reds' second half without Walt Jocketty having to lift a finger. If the Reds continue to win, and Mr. Bruce can avoid deep pitch counts, his recent struggles should disintegrate. Bruuuuuuuce!!!!

Bronson Arroyo (10-4, 3.96) will face Stephen Strasburg (4-2, 2.03) and the Washington Nationals at 7:10pm on Wednesday.

*Update: Jay Bruce went 2-5 during the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, scored a run, and raised his average to .259 on the season. Wednesday was Bruce's first multi-hit game since July 1.

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